Mesoscale Discussion 1269
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

   Areas affected...North Central/Northeast Kansas and South Central
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190249Z - 190415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Cluster of storms may continue tracking into northeast
   Kansas over the next few hours, with a continued risk for damaging
   wind gusts. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of storms has formed,
   with the strongest cells located in north-central Kansas and a
   trailing line of convection into southwest Kansas that has recently
   expanded in coverage. The strongest storms have produced measured
   wind gusts of 60-70 mph. This line of storms is moving into an
   instability axis that increases with eastward extent, ranging from
   3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE, as well as increasing CINH. Shear remains
   rather weak over the region, with perhaps a subtle improvement with
   time as the upper-level trough located over the northern Plains
   continues to progress southward.

   There is considerable uncertainty in the short term evolution of
   these storms, given poor analysis/representation in the latest
   convection-allowing guidance. Given the expansive coverage of
   convection, it seems plausible for these storms to continue until at
   least 06z-07z and track along/near the northern tier of counties in
   Kansas, following the axis of instability within generally westerly
   flow aloft. Should this occur, these storms will continue to pose a
   risk for a few damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. However,
   increasing convective inhibition and outflow that is now surging
   ahead of the convection (per KUEX trends) may limit the overall
   severe threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored,
   however, watch issuance remains unlikely.

   ..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38360009 38940011 39489947 40019942 40329866 39999623
               39209600 38519695 38360009