Mesoscale Discussion 1270
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...Central/northern WI...U.P. of MI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

   Valid 190613Z - 190745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and occasional hail will
   continue overnight.

   DISCUSSION...At 06Z, multiple clusters of convection are ongoing
   across WI and the U.P. of MI. Convection is expected to remain
   vigorous overnight, as a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates and
   strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) is maintained ahead of
   the ongoing clusters, especially across WI. Effective shear of 35-45
   kt will favor occasional supercell structures with an attendant risk
   of hail and locally damaging wind gusts, while any upscale-growing
   clusters will pose a more focused severe-wind risk. 

   Some backbuilding has been noted on the southwest edge of the
   ongoing convection, and this may continue given the favorable
   upstream buoyancy. Local expansion of WW 383 may be required if the
   southernmost convection continues to increase in coverage and
   intensity.

   ..Dean.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44108857 44028994 44099129 44259170 44539166 44959119
               45539040 46198962 47388766 47508643 47208583 45858588
               44378780 44108857