Mesoscale Discussion 1271
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...Central/northern Lower MI and the eastern U.P.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 190822Z - 190945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated damaging wind will
   increase later this morning as thunderstorms move in from the west.
   Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...At 0815Z, strong thunderstorms are moving into the
   eastern U.P. and northern Lake Michigan. Upstream measured wind
   gusts have generally been subsevere, but some potential for at least
   isolated damaging wind will spread into lower MI later this morning,
   given that the boundary layer remains relatively warm/moist, with
   MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg (with minimal CINH) per recent
   mesoanalyses. The potential for a more widespread damaging wind
   threat remains uncertain, though some southeastward surge in the
   convection has been noted approaching northern Lake Michigan, which
   may indicate more substantial cold-pool generation. Depending on
   short-term trends with the ongoing convective line, downstream watch
   issuance is possible by 09Z.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   45238629 46278465 46268414 46058352 45428339 44908330
               44298375 43948465 43958527 44048586 44178638 44478675
               44588682 44918662 45238629