Mesoscale Discussion 1272
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...Southern WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190844Z - 191015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind/hail is possible this morning as
   ongoing thunderstorms spread eastward. Watch issuance is considered
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At 0830Z, strong thunderstorms are ongoing from
   southwest into central WI, within a plume of strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
   of 2000-3500 J/kg). This convection has remained relatively
   disorganized thus far, likely due in part to somewhat weaker
   effective shear (25-30 kt) and large-scale ascent compared to areas
   further north. However, the strong instability will continue to
   support some hail risk with the strongest updrafts, and some
   damaging wind will be possible with any bowing segments that may
   evolve. With weaker effective shear and stronger MLCINH downstream,
   watch issuance is unlikely unless there is a notable uptick in
   convective organization across this area.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43469066 43988985 44178890 44158807 44018775 43448780
               42768798 42718940 42798984 42939029 43279089 43469066