Mesoscale Discussion 1273
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...Central/southern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191242Z - 191445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated damaging-wind threat will continue this
   morning. Watch issuance is considered unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At 1230Z, a loosely organized MCS is ongoing from
   southwest into central lower MI. Measured gusts overnight have been
   subsevere with this system, though transient bowing structures have
   occasionally been noted. Moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500
   J/kg per recent mesoanalyses and 12Z DTX sounding) will continue to
   sustain this system in the short-term as it propagates
   southeastward. Some boundary-layer heating and steepening of
   low-level lapse rates will support a localized damaging-wind risk
   this morning, though the system may tend to remain only loosely
   organized as it moves into a region where deep-layer shear is
   somewhat weaker compared to areas to the north and west. Unless a
   notable uptick in organization occurs, watch issuance in the short
   term is unlikely.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42848607 43508533 44108441 44398372 44288306 43968278
               43478260 42918251 41988319 41808363 41848479 41928544
               41978613 42178628 42848607