Mesoscale Discussion 1275
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191617Z - 191745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for locally gusty/damaging winds may spread into
   western New York as storms shift into this region.  Need for a WW
   remains uncertain, as wind risk may remain limited/local.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of storms that earlier
   crossed eastern Lower Michigan/Lake Huron now reorganizing linearly,
   crossing southern Ontario and Lake Erie.  Downstream, a gradually
   heating/destabilizing airmass is indicated, which will likely
   support the advance of this convective band across Lakes Erie and
   Ontario and into western New York in the next 1-2 hours.

   Moderate/weakly veering flow with height is indicated across the
   region, per morning RAOBs and the latest VWPs.  While sufficient for
   maintenance of the linear organization, potential for severe-caliber
   wind gusts will likely remain limited/local.  Still, stronger
   outflow winds -- capable of mainly tree damage -- will likely occur
   locally.  We will continue to monitor this area, with any increase
   in convective intensity over the next hour or so possibly supporting
   WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43907652 42977677 42027776 42117988 42628024 43777920
               44017762 43907652