Mesoscale Discussion 1277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...East central Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191836Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds and marginally severe hail are
   possible with thunderstorms this afternoon. This threat should be
   limited in duration and coverage, so a watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown a gradual
   strengthening in convection across central CO. IR satellite imagery
   supports this trend with cooling cloud top temperatures noted in a
   couple of storms. While the thermodynamic environment is favorable
   for continued convection (with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in recent
   RAP mesoanalysis along and east of the CO Front Range), the shear
   regime over the region is very weak and will continue to support
   disorganized clusters of storms. However, steep 0-3 km lapse rates
   between 8-9 C/km and a nearly 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layer will
   support the potential for occasional downburst winds with the
   strongest storms. Additionally, marginally severe hail will be
   possible with the stronger updraft pulses. The general expectation
   is for this activity to gradually increase in coverage as storms
   move off the higher terrain and into eastern CO. However, given the
   expected short duration of any one storm and isolated nature of the
   threat, a watch is not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37810465 38170520 38850547 39690560 40230525 40510460
               40540376 39980294 38930271 37870313 37790397 37810465