Mesoscale Discussion 1278
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

   Valid 191910Z - 192115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for eastern portions of WW
   384, but is gradually decreasing for central Indiana.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar, GOES IR, and MRMS vertically integrated
   have all shown a gradual weakening trend in the convective line that
   continues to move across central IN and into northwest OH. The
   weakening trend along the southern portion of the line (across
   central IN) is likely due to substantially weaker deep-layer shear
   with southward extent, which is hindering continued storm
   organization. However, a few transient individual updraft pulses
   have been noted in GOES IR imagery and suggest that this moderately
   unstable environment remains supportive of at least a brief
   hail/wind threat as new updrafts develop along the southward
   propagating outflow. However, this severe potential should be
   short-lived as storms struggle to remain organized. 

   Despite a substantial weakening of the initial line across northeast
   IN, new convection has developed along the residual outflow boundary
   near the Fort Wayne, IN area. Given sufficient effective bulk shear
   and moderate (2000-2500 J/kg) MLCAPE ahead of these storms into
   eastern OH, a severe threat should continue for the next couple of
   hours.

   ..Moore.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   41428524 41708499 41658430 41458384 40898377 40598390
               40268423 40118475 40198510 40498547 40748549 41428524