Mesoscale Discussion 1280
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...northern Ohio/northwestern PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191936Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection -- and possible/local wind risk -- may increase
   across northern Ohio over the next couple of hours.  WW may be
   required.

   DISCUSSION...A moist/unstable airmass is in place across northern
   Ohio and into northwestern PA, where 2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer
   CAPE is indicated, per latest objective analyses.  Though storms
   moving eastward out of WW 384 over northwestern Ohio have remained
   isolated and somewhat disorganized, a couple of stronger storms have
   evolved over the past hour or so.  Given the favorable airmass in
   place, a gradual increase in convective coverage seems rather likely
   to occur this afternoon across northern Ohio.  Given moderate (30 to
   40 kt) westerly flow aloft -- sufficient for organized, rather
   fast-moving storms -- that exists across the area, risk for locally
   damaging winds could become sufficient to warrant WW issuance in the
   next hour or so.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   42058010 41408013 40198234 40888414 41728389 41828202
               42058010