Mesoscale Discussion 1281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into central and eastern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192000Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible within the next 1-2
   hours. A couple strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a
   risk for hail and strong wind.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus
   along a stationary frontal boundary draped across MO and into
   northeast KS. The onset of convective initiation may be occurring to
   the northeast of the Topeka, KS area, as well as northwest of St.
   Louis, MO along this boundary. This suggests that thunderstorm
   development is probable within the next one to two hours, and will
   become increasingly likely heading into the late afternoon hours as
   destabilization continues. These storms will develop within a
   moderately unstable air mass, characterized by upwards of 3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. However, deep layer shear is relatively marginal across most
   of this region, with slightly more favorable effective bulk shear in
   place along the instability gradient across northern MO. Due to the
   weak shear fields and the increasing possibility of storm
   interactions with time (due to storm motions nearly along the
   boundary), storms may struggle to maintain organization long enough
   to pose a robust severe threat. Despite this concern, a couple of
   strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a threat for
   severe hail and strong wind, especially initially before more
   widespread convection occurs along the boundary.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39429598 39539489 39549246 39479131 39199043 38739034
               38529104 38349264 38529428 38649541 38899616 39209621
               39429598