Mesoscale Discussion 1282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...southwest South Dakota...western
   Nebraska...and northeast Colorado.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192050Z - 192245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the central High Plains
   over the coming hours will pose a risk for severe hail and wind as
   they move east/southeast through the late afternoon and evening
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...The early stages of convective initiation appear to be
   underway across northeast WY as well as far southeast WY where GOES
   imagery shows rapidly deepening cumulus, along with a few lightning
   strikes. Further to the north across eastern WY, southwest SD, and
   western NE, a growing cumulus field along a surface trough axis has
   shown signs of increasing vertical development, but lingering
   inhibition should limit storm initiation for another couple of
   hours. Storms that eventually develop will mature within an
   environment supportive of organized convection, characterized by
   sufficient 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 knots of effective bulk
   shear. Weak forcing for ascent along the trough axis and ahead of an
   approaching mid-level shortwave should yield isolated discrete cells
   that will pose mainly a severe hail/wind threat. In the near term,
   the coverage of storms will be limited due to the aforementioned
   inhibition in place, but a watch is possible later this afternoon
   and evening to cover these threats.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42480551 43490612 44300627 44630587 44590495 44490407
               43970332 42710191 41970080 41320057 40450090 40010147
               39850219 40210318 40930409 41650474 42480551