Mesoscale Discussion 1283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...southern/southeastern New York and northern
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192152Z - 192315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters of storms will pose a
   damaging-wind risk through sunset.  A WW issuance is not anticipated
   at this time, though local extensions of WW 385 may be considered
   across southern New York.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized clusters/linear segments of
   convection has propagated eastward out of WW 385 and now extend
   along a line from near BGM to near UNV.  While shear throughout the
   lower troposphere is lacking, the storms are moving into a
   moderately unstable environment characterized by 1500-2500 J/kg of
   MUCAPE.  This instability and presence of mature, advancing cold
   pools across the region will contribute to a localized
   damaging-wind-gust threat continuing through early evening across
   the discussion area.  The threat will be too isolated to necessitate
   a WW issuance, though local extensions of WW 385 may be considered
   in downstream areas of south-central New York State.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42927433 42657546 41817699 41247810 40657761 40567608
               40917456 41817400 42747397 42927433