Mesoscale Discussion 1284
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

   Areas affected...northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...

   Valid 192254Z - 200000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging-wind gusts remain possible ahead of a linear
   segment moving through the discussion area.  Otherwise, much of WW
   386 may be cancelled early - especially once the ongoing convection
   exits the area.

   DISCUSSION...A damaging-wind risk continues along the leading edge
   of a line of strong to severe convection that has entered
   northwestern Pennsylvania recently.  Although wind shear continues
   to be only marginally supportive of organized convection, the
   presence of a mature cold pool and forward-propagation into a
   moderately unstable airmass (1500-2000 J/kg) and steep low-level
   lapse rates will continue to support a damaging wind risk for at
   least the next couple hours.  This risk will migrate into areas of
   western Pennsylvania that are not currently included in WW 386. 
   Though a damaging-wind risk will persist into these areas for the
   next couple hours or so, the potential for a downstream WW issuance
   is not particularly high given the limited spatial extent of
   expected wind risk.

   Elsewhere, substantial convective overturning has stabilized areas
   north and west of the ongoing linear complex.  Once the ongoing
   complex migrates southeast of existing areas of WW 386, remaining
   valid areas of the WW can be cancelled well before scheduled
   expiration (11pm EDT).

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 07/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42207969 41908056 41568122 41208160 40898197 40428181
               40238107 40648007 41057936 41717903 42117917 42207969