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Mesoscale Discussion 1286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...West-central Nebraska...Northwest
Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...
Valid 200325Z - 200430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a couple more
hours across parts of the central High Plains. The threat is
expected to move eastward into parts of northern and central
Nebraska around midnight. Either a new watch or an extension could
be needed if the severe threat can be maintained.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered strong
to severe convection from far eastern Wyoming into northwestern
Nebraska. The strongest cell is in Goshen County, Wyoming and
recently produced 2 inch diameter hail. According to the RAP, the
storms are located along a corridor of moderate instability where
MLCAPE is estimated to be near 1500 J/Kg. The Thedford, Nebraska
WSR-88D VWP still shows 0-6 km shear near 35 kt with substantial
directional shear in the lowest 3 Km above ground level. This
combined with the instability will continue to support severe storm
development late this evening. Isolated large hail and wind damage
will be the primary threats. The storms are expected to move
eastward into north and central Nebraska around midnight. A decision
to extend the current watch or issue a new watch would be needed as
the storms approach the edge of WW 387.
..Broyles.. 07/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...CYS...
LAT...LON 43010331 42950403 42820436 42500444 42120426 41610331
41060195 39920185 39770086 40209942 41209931 42539945
42780083 43010331
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