Mesoscale Discussion 1287
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

   Areas affected...Central/southern NE...Northern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200714Z - 200915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected overnight. Localized
   severe wind/hail is possible, though the threat appears relatively
   limited. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...At 07Z, convection is increasing in coverage across
   central NE into northern KS, in advance of a convectively enhanced
   shortwave trough moving eastward out of the central High Plains.
   While deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region (in the
   20-30 kt range), convection is expected to continue increasing in
   coverage within a warm-advection regime attendant to the shortwave.
   Moderate MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) will support a localized hail risk
   with the strongest newer updrafts, while continued consolidation of
   convection may result in at least temporary bowing structures
   capable of locally damaging wind. 

   The greatest relative risk will likely be over northern KS and far
   southern NE, in closer proximity the primary surface boundary and
   somewhat greater elevated buoyancy. The overall threat is expected
   to remain too limited for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 07/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39169930 39279988 39400031 39520044 40440012 40730002
               41079990 41369978 41489957 41699920 41829886 41829824
               41709746 41279695 40839669 40549653 39809618 39519604
               39229643 39149732 39139790 39149881 39169930