Mesoscale Discussion 1288
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

   Areas affected...southern Appalachian range

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201657Z - 201900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected
   by mid afternoon, and will pose a risk for sporadic damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows a broad region
   of deepening cumulus from northern GA northward into southern WV and
   southwest VA. A few attempts at convective initiation have been
   noted, but lingering inhibition has limited convective activity so
   far. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely over
   the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to climb into the low to
   mid 90s and parcels begin to reach their convective temperatures.
   Orographic ascent should yield a few initially isolated storms
   before storm outflows drive more widespread convection. While the
   environment over this region will remain moderately unstable (with
   upwards of 2000 J/kg by mid afternoon), deep layer shear will remain
   weak and favor disorganized storm modes. The overall severe threat
   from these storms will be relatively low, but steepening low-level
   lapse rates (already noted at 7-8 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis) will
   support the potential for damaging winds with any stronger
   downbursts. Due to the isolated and transient nature of the threat,
   a watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
   LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34498662 35308686 36358597 37128400 37498187 37278026
               36687934 35757936 35007976 34398059 33998134 34398464
               34498662