Mesoscale Discussion 1290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri into central Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201742Z - 201945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradually strengthening thunderstorms may pose a risk for
   severe hail/wind through the afternoon hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway from southeast
   MO into central KY as storms develop along a weakly confluent
   stationary boundary. Although the environment over this region is
   moderately unstable (around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), only around 20
   knots of boundary-parallel effective bulk shear, coupled with
   along-boundary storm motions, should lead to initially discrete
   cells merging into disorganized clusters. In the near term, discrete
   storms may pose a transient wind and hail with any stronger updraft
   pulse prior to storm interactions/upscale growth. Heading into the
   mid to late afternoon hours, gradually increasing shear across this
   region may lead to increased storm organization and a more robust
   severe wind threat, although confidence on when this uptick in storm
   organization/severity will occur is somewhat low. Trends will be
   monitored and a watch is possible later this afternoon.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37999073 38028855 38078592 37998459 37548419 36658454
               36498510 36348699 36348897 36739049 37139092 37999073