Mesoscale Discussion 1291
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

   Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202006Z - 202200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose the risk for
   sporadic downburst winds into the late afternoon hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar over the past hour has shown scattered
   thunderstorms developing along a weak warm front/differential
   heating boundary across the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK.
   A severe wind gust was recent noted in Hall county Texas, likely the
   result of a strong downburst. The strong heating on the eastern side
   of the boundary has resulted in steep low-level lapse rates around 9
   C/km and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, yielding an environment
   favorable for downburst winds despite weak deep layer shear.
   Satellite imagery suggests that new convective development along the
   boundary is underway, and outflow-driven initiation is possible.
   Given supportive instability and continued daytime heating through
   the late afternoon, the potential for downburst winds associated
   with disorganized storm clusters will continue prior to the onset of
   boundary layer cooling after sunset. This threat will remain
   sporadic and transient, so a watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34270145 35150089 35620007 36039951 36699900 36989836
               36849780 36319771 35719797 35429829 34829908 34459966
               34170041 33870116 34270145