Mesoscale Discussion 1293
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...northeastern Colorado...and
   western and central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 202051Z - 202245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in convection -- and attendant severe
   potential -- may become sufficient in the next 1 to 2 hours to
   warrant WW consideration.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar images show an
   increase in convective coverage over parts of eastern Wyoming and
   south to the Colorado/Wyoming state line vicinity, with isolated CB
   development also occurring within a persistent cu field over parts
   of western Nebraska.

   While the Wyoming initiation is largely terrain-induced, development
   across Nebraska appears to be occurring in an area of weak surface
   convergence, within an axis of moderate destabilization (2500 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE).  While CAM runs suggest that storms will remain
   isolated until later this evening as convection spreads southward
   out of South Dakota, character of the cumulus across the discussion
   area at this time suggests at least widely scattered storm coverage.
    We will continue to monitor development, with an eye toward
   possible WW issuance, given the degree of CAPE, along with ample
   shear arising from moderate/veering flow with height observed across
   this area.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 07/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42690479 43060325 43089898 41289889 39999982 41240507
               42690479