Mesoscale Discussion 1294
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

   Areas affected...Southern/east-central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...

   Valid 202301Z - 210030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The primary severe risk in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   388 continues particularly across southwest/south-central South
   Dakota generally near the Nebraska border, with severe hail/wind
   remaining possible as storms move southeastward. A temporal
   extension of Watch 388 could be warranted pending convective trends
   prior to 00Z scheduled expiration.

   DISCUSSION...The primary severe risk should be focused across far
   southwest/south-central South Dakota including Ogalala
   Lakota/Bennett/Todd Counties. Instability is maximized within this
   corridor coincident with an estimated 35-40 kt of effective shear,
   with the favorable environment highlighted by an intense supercell
   across western Bennett County as of 455pm MDT. 

   Otherwise, a well-organized eastward-moving bowing cluster across
   eastern South Dakota, approaching I-29 and the Watertown area as of
   6pm CDT, is expected to remain largely sub-severe, although some
   stronger wind gusts cannot be entirely ruled out. Overall buoyancy
   tends to weaken with eastward extent near/east of the South
   Dakota/Minnesota border.

   ..Guyer.. 07/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44619830 45119788 44889722 44179745 43099993 43220299
               44550314 44109973 44619830