Mesoscale Discussion 1298
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

   Areas affected...east-central IL into central IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211619Z - 211745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of sporadic strong, locally damaging
   gusts are possible through the afternoon from east-central IL into
   central IN.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has recently been increasing in intensity
   near an MCV tracking east across east-central IL. This convection
   should continue to track east along an instability gradient,
   delineated by a quasi-warm front/stationary boundary extending
   east/southeast across northern IL into central IN. South of this
   boundary, dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60s to low 70s F
   with temperatures quickly warming into the 80s. As a result,
   instability should continue to increase. While deep shear is weak,
   the MCV should provide some enhancement to low/midlevel flow,
   resulting in effective shear near 30-35 kt, allowing for at least
   periodic organization of the forward-propagating cluster. While some
   uncertainty exists regarding maintenance of this convection given
   overall modest parameter space, at least a sporadic threat for
   locally damaging wind gusts appears possible for the next several
   hours as storms shift east into west-central and central IN. Trends
   will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40378956 40778941 41018926 40988718 40718595 40568565
               40248533 39868546 39578563 39348635 39248707 39228851
               39508904 39868951 40378956