Mesoscale Discussion 1299
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

   Areas affected...the southern Appalachians

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211700Z - 211900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will pose the potential for strong
   downburst winds and sporadic wind damage. This threat should remain
   relatively isolated, so a watch is not warranted.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have already initiated along the higher
   terrain of the southern Appalachians from northern GA into southwest
   NC. An increase in storm coverage is expected through the mid to
   late afternoon hours as low-level parcels reach their convective
   temperatures, and lift from orographic ascent and convective
   outflows aid in additional storm development. As with previous days,
   the mid-day environment is already exhibiting moderate instability
   with MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg, but very weak flow
   throughout the column. Despite a gradual increase in MLCAPE by mid
   afternoon, weak shear will hinder the potential for storm severity
   and longevity. However, steepening low-level lapse rates through the
   day will foster the potential for a few stronger downbursts and
   damaging winds with any stronger updraft pulses - especially during
   the mid/late afternoon hours. Similar environments have yielded
   sporadic wind damage reports over the past couple of days, isolated
   instances of wind damage appear likely again today. Given the
   isolated nature of the threat a watch is not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CAE...GSP...
   MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34788578 35548404 36768166 38168042 39177925 39307834
               38717798 37767798 36477844 35427935 34788060 34018169
               33738275 33818388 34218528 34788578