Mesoscale Discussion 1302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

   Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211843Z - 212015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible
   through the afternoon and early evening from east-central MO into
   central IL. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with
   this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the last hour along
   an outflow boundary left behind by morning convection. Strong
   heating along/south of the boundary has allowed temperatures to warm
   into the 80s to near 90 degrees amid mid 70s dewpoints. This has
   resulted in moderate to strong destabilization to the south of the
   outflow boundary. Additional storms related to a decaying MCV have
   re-intensified across east-central MO as well. All of this activity
   is occurring on the southern fringes of stronger effective shear,
   though 25-30 kt effective shear should be adequate for at least
   briefly-organized and intense cells. Some uncertainty exists
   regarding the extent of the severe threat across the region into the
   afternoon and early evening hours as storms track generally
   eastward. The downstream airmass has been impacted by earlier
   convection associated with a bowing segment now tracking into
   central IN. This could be of some detriment to the longevity of
   organized convection across IL depending on how much airmass
   recovery occur. Nevertheless, at least a few strong storms capable
   of locally damaging winds will be possible. Convective trends will
   be monitored for a possible watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38529167 39329199 39859145 40048978 39858876 39598824
               39298809 39028841 38528926 38259032 38369099 38529167