Mesoscale Discussion 1309
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0849 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

   Areas affected...central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221349Z - 221515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms across central/north central South
   Dakota should persist for the next 30-60 minutes, but confidence in
   the duration of the severe threat associated with these storms is
   somewhat low. Trends will be monitored, but a watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Early morning radar shows a cluster of discrete to
   semi-discrete cells moving south/southeastward across north central
   South Dakota. These storms are forming within a pocket of elevated
   instability (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE per RAP analysis) and just ahead
   of a subtle mid-level shortwave impulse that is translating across
   the Dakotas. Enhanced flow in the vicinity of the wave has allowed
   for 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear over the region, which is
   supporting organized storms. 

   The expectation in the near term is for these storms to continue to
   propagate along the eastern periphery of the elevated instability
   gradient into central SD and pose a risk for severe hail, and
   perhaps strong winds, for the next 30-60 minutes. Recent guidance
   suggests that the environment will continue to be favorable for
   convection through at least mid morning, but storm motions along the
   instability gradient should increase the probability of destructive
   storm interactions with time. As such, there is some uncertainty
   regarding how long storms will remain organized/discrete and pose a
   severe risk. Trends will be monitored through the morning, but a
   watch is not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45540128 45590069 45240010 44539943 43849909 43489902
               43399954 43420028 43760079 44350107 45180134 45540128