Mesoscale Discussion 1311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

   Areas affected...portions of southern MO...northern AR...southern
   IL...southern IN...and western/central KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221654Z - 221900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to locally damaging wind gusts are
   possible today from portions of the Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley.
   Convection will remain largely unorganized and transient in
   time/space and a watch is not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Areas of thunderstorms are developing early this
   afternoon in a broad CU field ahead of a surface trough, stretching
   from southern MO/northern AR east/northeast to southern IN and
   central KY. Strong heating of an airmass characterized by low to mid
   70s F surface dewpoints has resulted in rapid destabilization of the
   region, with MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg noted in latest
   mesoanalysis. Midlevel lapse rates and effective shear will remain
   modest across the region. This will generally limit organization,
   with pulse/multi-cell clusters expected. However, PW values
   approaching 2 inches and steep low level lapse rates will support
   occasional wet microbursts, and a few locally damaging gusts are
   possible.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37448488 36788668 36248993 35869268 36229318 36709317
               37169241 38278960 38768761 38938675 39178523 39108450
               38428422 37938447 37448488