Mesoscale Discussion 1312
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

   Areas affected...Florida Panhandle into north-central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221726Z - 221930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose the risk for
   sporadic damaging winds into the late afternoon. A watch is not
   expected due to the isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms across central FL have had a
   history of producing strong, but sub-severe winds (30-40 knots) over
   the past 1-2 hours. These strong winds are likely the result of a
   combination of strong flow just above the surface (VAD observations
   from KTBW show persistent and nearly unidirectional 20-30 knot flow
   in the 0-4 km layer) and steepening low-level lapse rates ahead the
   storms across west-central FL to the FL Panhandle. Despite weak deep
   layer shear, increasing instability through the day will allow
   convection to persist as it moves westward into the FL Panhandle.
   Strong low-level flow and steep low-level lapse rates are expected
   to remain in place ahead of these storms, and will continue to
   support the potential for isolated damaging winds, especially with
   any stronger updraft pulses. Although a few instances of severe wind
   and hail are possible, the coverage and duration of severe storms
   will most likely remain too low/short to warrant a watch.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   27508257 27748313 28458304 28998312 29648365 29738435
               29508504 29728557 30028592 30218640 30408707 30928724
               31198707 31538619 31368489 31118368 30858284 30298250
               29578230 28658210 27508257