Mesoscale Discussion 1317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

   Areas affected...much of West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222146Z - 222315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An MCS was migrating eastward across the discussion at
   around 35-40 knots.  This complex will bring strong to potentially
   damaging wind gusts to the Charleston vicinity over the next hour
   and the remainder of the MD area over the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized, forward-propagating MCS has migrated
   into western portions of the state of West Virginia recently.  The
   downstream airmass is only weakly sheared, though the organization
   of the MCS suggests that storm-scale processes may contribute to
   gusty winds especially on the leading edge of the convection. 
   Moderate instability exists downstream of the MCS (MUCAPE ranging
   from 2000-3000 J/kg amidst low 90s F surface temperatures and 60s F
   dewpoints), which should maintain the MCS through at least dark.  On
   its current eastward track (around 35-40 knots forward motion), the
   complex will migrate through the Charleston, WV vicinity over the
   next hour and through the remainder of the MD area over the next 2-3
   hours, posing a continued isolated damaging-wind gust risk through
   sunset.  The isolated nature of the threat precludes a WW issuance,
   however.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 07/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   39168199 39188040 38887974 38207956 37717995 37408082
               37458189 37708246 38018272 38468252 38728229 39168199