Mesoscale Discussion 1319
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

   Areas affected...a portion of the northeastern states

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231605Z - 231800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to undergo a gradual intensity
   increase this afternoon. Multicell storms capable of strong to
   damaging wind gusts are the main threat.

   DISCUSSION...This afternoon a cold front extends from a weak surface
   low over northern NH southwest through northern and western NY, and
   into northern and southwest OH. The pre-frontal warm sector is very
   moist with surface dewpoints in the low 70s F, and visible imagery
   shows numerous cloud breaks. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but as
   the boundary layer warms, MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg is expected.
   Storms will continue developing along the front and within the
   weakly capped warm sector. Weak vertical shear will support
   multicell storm modes. However, steepening low-level lapse rates
   will promote a threat for isolated wet downbursts. A more organized
   damaging wind threat will be possible if and where storms can attain
   more linear structures.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 07/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   CTP...

   LAT...LON   42837478 43657216 44057096 43727020 42067089 41327325
               40967603 41207781 42177773 42837478