Mesoscale Discussion 1320
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Tennessee...southeast Kentucky...southwest
   Virginia and the western through central Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231711Z - 231915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk for isolated downburst
   winds this afternoon from the southern Appalachians into the
   Carolinas region. Unless a corridor of potentially greater severe
   coverage or storm organization can be identified, a WW will probably
   not be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are developing across the
   southern Appalachian region. A line of storms has evolved across the
   eastern portion of middle TN in association with an MCV. Other
   storms are forming over the higher terrain as well as farther east
   along an east-west oriented boundary across northern NC. Despite the
   diverse forcing mechanisms, storms remain in a similar environment
   and well south of the stronger winds aloft with weak flow and
   vertical shear supportive of pulse and multicells. Numerous storm
   mergers are likely, and the thermodynamic environment with
   steepening low-level lapse rates along with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
   will support potential for isolated downburst winds in the stronger
   cores.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 07/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
   OHX...

   LAT...LON   36038509 36718445 37228244 37828112 37538010 36647895
               36377741 35497795 35318035 34788176 34478335 34998489
               35588565 36038509