Mesoscale Discussion 1321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

   Areas affected...northeast Idaho into southwest Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231739Z - 231945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing over Idaho are expected
   to gradually strengthen through the day. Storms may be capable of
   producing strong winds and severe hail later in the afternoon, and a
   watch is possible to cover these concerns.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery shows a few weak
   thunderstorms developing within a deformation band ahead of an
   approaching shortwave trough from eastern OR into northeast ID.
   Residual inhibition and weak deep layer shear are limiting the
   strength and organization of convection at the moment, and should
   continue to do so for the next hour or so. Heading into the mid and
   late afternoon hours, modest daytime heating, coupled with steep
   mid-level lapse rates observed in the BOI and TFX morning soundings,
   should aid in further destabilization with MLCAPE values reaching
   between 500-1000 J/kg. Winds aloft should increase with the approach
   of the shortwave trough, and will help impose 30-35 knots of
   effective shear over the region. These trends should lead to a
   gradual intensification of ongoing storms, and help increase storm
   coverage as broad lift is augmented by localized orographic ascent.
   The main threats expected from these storms will be strong to severe
   winds given steepening 0-3 km lapse rates, though instances of
   severe hail are possible. Trends will be monitored over the coming
   hours, and a watch is possible if convection begins to intensify as
   expected.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   45111507 45921442 46621370 47131246 47191118 46541071
               45791064 45011112 44461212 44151286 43931383 44421461
               44791507 45111507