Mesoscale Discussion 1324
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

   Areas affected...northeastern Pennsylvania...southern New
   York...northern New Jersey...northern
   Connecticut...Massachusetts...southern New Hampshire...and Rhode
   Island

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...396...

   Valid 232248Z - 232345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395, 396
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk exists across the discussion area
   (WWs 395 and 396) although that risk is diminishing in a few areas. 
   Portions of both WWs may be cancelled well before scheduled
   expiration times.

   DISCUSSION...The severe risk across the discussion area has
   diminished substantially across portions of WW 395 as a result of
   convective overturning and stabilization.  A few areas in
   southwestern portions of that WW remain unstable just ahead of a
   linear segment over southeastern New York State (around 30 NE of
   POU) that may begin to impact areas of western Connecticut over the
   next hour or two, though indications are that broad areas of WW 395
   may be cancelled before its initially scheduled expiration time
   (00Z).

   Farther west, weak to moderate instability persists ahead of
   convection over WW 396, which has evolved into a series of
   multicells and linear segments.  A limited wind-damage risk will
   exist with this activity over the next couple of hours, though
   limited shear should mitigate the threat in most areas.  Pending
   convective trends, portions of WW 396 may also be cancelled early -
   especially on the northern extent of the WW where a composite
   front/outflow boundary is migrating southward and stabilization has
   occurred to its north.

   Lastly, a localized complex of updrafts have begun to produce
   lightning in central Maine within an airmass mostly undisturbed by
   prior convection.  Shear is slightly better in this region, which
   could encourage a limited risk for damaging wind gusts for the next
   hour or so, although nocturnal cooling of surface temperatures
   should eventually limit this risk as well.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 07/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   45426874 45586808 45436770 44226812 42576921 41517095
               40687325 40377499 40457623 41157708 41667696 41957594
               42287456 42827280 43517162 44257044 45426874