Mesoscale Discussion 1329
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

   Areas affected...The Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241743Z - 241915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts will be
   possible this afternoon and evening. A weather watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite and RADAR data showed a
   cluster of thunderstorms developing over the Blue Ridge mountains in
   the western Carolinas. Theses storms are likely associated with a
   weak mid-level vort max rotating around the periphery of a ridge of
   high pressure centered over the southern US. With warm and moist
   surface conditions (dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s F) supporting
   MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, additional storm development is expected
   this afternoon. Vertical shear is very weak, less than 15kt from SPC
   mesoanalysis. This should favor a pulsey, multi-cellular mode with
   little storm organization. Despite the weak organization, the
   favorable CAPE and DCAPE (6-800 J/kg) should continue to support
   robust updrafts and a few stronger downdrafts capable of isolated
   damaging wind gusts through this evening. Given the limited severe
   threat coverage and lack of broader organization, a weather watch is
   unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Goss.. 07/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33948035 33528064 33688146 34098228 34688309 35168394
               35658367 35408213 34968110 34438035 33948035