Mesoscale Discussion 1331
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

   Areas affected...Central and eastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242022Z - 242145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The cluster of storms across north-central Virginia may
   pose a brief risk for a few strong/damaging wind gusts. A weather
   watch will likely not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor and visible imagery show weak vortmax
   located along the edge of the ridge of high pressure is passing
   through the Mid-Atlantic. Lift from this perturbation as well as
   strong diurnal heating has been sufficient to support the
   development of scattered thunderstorms from northern Virginia,
   southwestward along the spine of the Appalachians. Mid-level lapse
   rates are not particularly steep, but sufficiently warm and moist
   surface conditions are supporting between 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
   across much of the region. With less than 20 kt of bulk shear,
   multi-cell storms are expected to be the primary mode. Downdraft
   CAPE of 600-800 J/kg will support a few stronger downdrafts capable
   of strong to near severe winds through the next few hours. As storms
   move southeastward toward the coast, higher boundary-layer moisture
   content will limit the potential for evaporative cooling and
   downdraft acceleration. Widespread severe weather is not expected
   and a watch is likely not needed.

   ..Lyons/Goss.. 07/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36607628 36627957 37057966 38237929 38687869 38807805
               38737726 38427676 37727624 36857609 36627604 36607628