Mesoscale Discussion 1332
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020

   Areas affected...Southern and Eastern North Dakota...Northwest
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 242153Z - 250030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop by early evening
   across parts of southern and eastern North Dakota into northwestern
   Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. A
   severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed over the next hour
   or two.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1006 mb low over
   north-central North Dakota with a trough extending northeastward
   from the low across east-central North Dakota. To the east of the
   surface trough, a very moist airmass is in place with dewpoints in
   the 70s F. Strong instability has developed this afternoon across
   this airmass with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg
   range across much of eastern North Dakota and far northwestern
   Minnesota. The latest visible satellite imagery shows agitated
   cumulus along the surface trough in southern North Dakota east of
   Bismarck. This is where cell initiation should take place over the
   next 1 to 2 hours. This is supported by both the RAP and NAM. Cell
   coverage should increase across southern North Dakota early this
   evening as a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, moves
   northeastward across the northern Plains. Although regional WSR-88D
   VWPs have 0-6 km shear only in the 20 to 30 kt range, boundary-layer
   shear should increase as a low-level jet strengthens across the
   region. For this reason, supercells with isolated large hail will be
   possible. Supercells and the stronger multicells may also produce
   damaging wind gusts. Once the timing of cell initiation becomes more
   clear, weather watch issuance will become likely.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 07/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49219765 48459827 47759866 46979981 46680044 46480078
               46130096 45960078 45929830 45989665 46819608 49049567
               49219765