Mesoscale Discussion 1337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252021Z - 252215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of damaging winds and isolated large
   hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. A weather watch
   may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon upper-air analysis showed a shortwave trough
   moving from southern Canada into portions of Montana and North
   Dakota. Ahead of this trough and an associated surface cold front,
   showers and some weak convection were being observed across central
   North Dakota.

   Storms so far have remained elevated and mostly on the cool side of
   the frontal boundary, limiting any potential for severe weather.
   Additional storm development is possible along and behind the front
   this afternoon, as mid-level height falls from the approaching
   trough are forecast to continue overspreading the region. SPC
   Mesoanalysis indicates moderately unstable conditions, with
   1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, ahead of the cold front. However,
   considerable inhibition (-100 to -50 J/kg) remains in place.

   If additional storms are able to develop, increasing flow aloft
   should support a mixed mode of line segments and some supercells
   given effective shear of 40-45 kt.  Organized updrafts capable of a
   few damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible. A
   weather watch may be warranted if convective trends signal an
   increase in severe probabilities, though there remains considerable
   uncertainty.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49019874 48990096 48530126 47000277 46470251 46750060
               47309941 48049901 49019874