Mesoscale Discussion 1338
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

   Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Northeast Colorado...and
   Northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252319Z - 260045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind/hail threat, watch unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms has
   developed across north-central Nebraska, with more widely scattered
   storms over northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. These storms
   have developed during peak heating amid modest instability (MLCAPE
   1000-2000 J/kg) and weak effective shear approaching 30 kt. Only
   weak pulse-like storms have emerged, with mainly large regenerating
   outflows characteristic of the environment that shows steep
   low-level lapse rates (8 C/km) and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer.


   A general but subtle increase in convective coverage is likely to
   occur throughout the evening, particularly along expanding/merging
   outflow boundaries that migrate eastward into improving low-level
   moisture/instability (approaching 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) downstream of
   the current convective activity over central Nebraska. Given the
   weakly sheared environment, storm intensity is expected to remain
   generally low. However, an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may
   occur with the strongest cells throughout the remainder of the
   evening.

   ..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40780322 42020252 42760028 42639859 41209850 39989907
               38810097 38660231 39350317 40780322