Mesoscale Discussion 1340
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0830 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota and far Northeast South
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...

   Valid 260130Z - 260300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues for WW 401. Convective trends
   being monitored for possible watch extension.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and south
   of a cold front moving through portions of south-central North
   Dakota, with assistance from a mid-level trough providing a focused
   area of diffluence and ascent. In addition, low-level convergence is
   maximized along/near the baroclinic zone, helping to increase storm
   coverage amid a corridor of modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg) and
   favorable effective shear (45-55 kt) for storm/updraft organization.
   So far only one intense cluster of storms has emerged, traversing
   the ND/SD border while producing several damaging wind reports.

   Storms that move and/or develop eastward with time will encounter a
   more unstable environment, characterized by MLCAPE approaching 2500
   J/kg. Given the aforementioned mid-level support and strongly
   sheared environment, it seems plausible for the damaging wind threat
   to continue into portions of southeast North Dakota and far
   northeast South Dakota. This scenario is supported by the latest
   convection allowing guidance. Thus, convective trends will continue
   to be monitored for the possibility of a watch extension.

   ..Karstens.. 07/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47409879 47289827 46859715 46329672 45969677 45789721
               45669868 45660011 45960084 46580078 47000056 47340018
               47469970 47409879