Mesoscale Discussion 1341
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

   Areas affected...northeast South Dakota and west-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260702Z - 260830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Episodic, marginally severe wind gusts will continue to be
   possible for the next couple of hours across far southeast North
   Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and west-central Minnesota with the
   strongest thunderstorms. More widespread severe potential remains
   low and thus a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue moving east across northeast
   South Dakota and southeast North Dakota this morning and should
   continue into west-central Minnesota. These thunderstorms are fed by
   an axis of greater instability stretching from eastern South Dakota
   north-northeast into west-central Minnesota. Here, most-unstable
   CAPE values range from 2500-4000 J/kg, with effective deep-layer
   shear on the order of 40 knots. Given this kinematic and
   thermodynamic environment, episodic bouts of strong/gusty
   thunderstorm winds will be possible with the strongest thunderstorm
   cores. To this end, a recent RAWS site in Marshall County, SD, (in
   the vicinity of one of these stronger thunderstorm cores) reported a
   wind gust of 58 mph.

   The overall ability for thunderstorms to produce severe wind gusts
   should continue to wane with time this morning as the boundary layer
   continues to decouple and surface stability increases. This,
   combined with the limited number of thunderstorms, should limit the
   overall severe potential such that a severe thunderstorm watch will
   not be required.

   ..Marsh/Edwards.. 07/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44959829 46209715 46599455 46099426 45239475 44749575
               44599728 44959829