Mesoscale Discussion 1345
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

   Areas affected...Northern kansas southeast Nebraska and southwest
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261906Z - 262100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong/severe storms with damaging winds and
   isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. A
   weather watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon surface analysis showed a slow moving cold
   front across much of the central Plains into the Midwest. This front
   was associated with a high-latitude shortwave trough ejecting
   eastward over the Dakotas. Lift from the shortwave trough is
   forecast to glance the frontal zone later this afternoon and
   evening. Strong heating along the frontal zone is contributing
   2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE given dewpoints in the lower 70s F.
   Inhibition is beginning to weaken, and recent cumulus development
   suggests the atmosphere is continuing to destabilize. Stronger shear
   is forecast to remain displaced on the northern side of the
   boundary. This should serve to limit the overall organization of
   convective elements. However, a couple of severe storms may develop
   with a threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail.
   Considerable uncertainty exists in the coverage of severe storms. As
   a result, a weather watch appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38780107 39600096 40479939 40959825 41399709 41629631
               41649540 41189454 40389426 39689493 39219659 38669936
               38559990 38510035 38780107