Mesoscale Discussion 1348
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271714Z - 271845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across eastern Illinois into eastern Ohio
   may pose a threat for a few damaging wind gusts this afternoon and
   evening. A weather watch is unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough moving across the upper Midwest and
   southern Canada is forecast to continue eastward this afternoon and
   evening. Storm development has already taken place along and east of
   the associated surface cold front in central Illinois. Seasonably
   warm and moist surface conditions, temperatures and dewpoints in the
   80s and 70s F respectively, are supporting between 1000-2000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE, despite the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Continued
   heating and background lift from the approaching trough are expected
   to support an increase in storm coverage through this afternoon.
   Vertical shear is weak, at only 20-25 kt for much of the region.
   Storm organization is forecast to be minimal, and primarily
   multi-cellular. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main threat
   with the convective complex as the cold pool spreads to the east. 

   Additional storms are expected to develop across eastern and central
   Ohio. These storms are expected to remain more scattered in
   coverage, and overall less organized than the complex moving in from
   the west. While shear is weak, (below 20kt) DCAPE of 1000-1400 J/kg
   will support an occasional strong convective gusts.  

   Given the broad nature of the threat area and lack of greater storm
   organization/focus, any severe threat that materializes will likely
   remain isolated. A weather watch is unlikely at this time.

   ..Lyons/Bunting.. 07/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
   LSX...

   LAT...LON   40498268 39808312 38938454 38658562 38248702 37888948
               38269018 38628995 39268911 40018893 41398620 41538476
               41218321 40808254 40498268