Mesoscale Discussion 1349
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northern NY/NH/VT into ME

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272047Z - 272315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind
   gusts will be possible into this evening. Watch issuance is
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At 2045Z, thunderstorms are ongoing across southern
   Quebec into portions of northern New England. While clouds have
   limited destabilization across central/northern ME, greater heating
   across northern NY into portions of VT/NH has allowed MLCAPE to rise
   into the 750-1500 J/kg range per recent mesoanalyses. Thunderstorm
   coverage may increase over the next 1-2 hours, in advance of a weak
   shortwave trough moving across southern Quebec, and along and ahead
   of a diffuse surface boundary near the international border.
   Effective shear of 35-45 kt may allow for some storm organization,
   though weak midlevel lapse rates will generally tend to limit
   updraft intensity. A few multicells/weak supercells and/or small
   bowing segments may eventually evolve with time, resulting in a
   threat of locally damaging wind. The coverage and magnitude of the
   threat is expected to remain rather limited, so watch issuance is
   considered unlikely at this time.

   ..Dean/Bunting.. 07/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   44207444 44327519 44487559 44617577 44807580 45017520
               45167431 45417268 45387141 45807026 46096963 46106896
               45766794 45116729 44646793 44386972 44047160 44197434
               44207444