Mesoscale Discussion 1351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Great Lakes

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291736Z - 291900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple storms will pose a risk for isolated damaging
   wind gusts this afternoon. A weather watch will likely not be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...A broad upper low over southern Canada is rotating
   rotating through the Great Lakes supporting scattered shower and
   thunderstorm development near the international border. A plume of
   temperatures and dewpoints in the 80s and mid 60s F respectively are
   contributing to 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE despite relatively weak
   mid-level lapse rates. Recently, radar and satellite data have shown
   storms starting to intensify across portions of southwestern New
   York into portions of northeastern Ohio. 30-35 kt of effective shear
   should support a few multi-cell clusters capable of damaging wind
   gusts given steep low-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. Storm
   coverage is expected to remain relatively low given the shallow
   nature of surface moisture and weak destabilization. Storms moving
   east are expected to weaken as they interact with drier air from a
   previous frontal passage towards eastern New York and Pennsylvania.
   Conditions will be monitored, though uncertainty in severity and
   coverage suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Goss.. 07/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42108220 42758017 43477895 43727774 44247600 44017545
               43307563 42397648 41677768 41207861 41027915 40978033
               41018119 41208202 41698258 42108220