Mesoscale Discussion 1352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

   Areas affected...Far eastern CO into western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291928Z - 292100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are possible later this
   afternoon into the evening. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts
   will be the primary hazards. Watch issuance is possible by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...At 1915Z, cumulus is increasing across portions of
   east-central and southeast CO, and also in the vicinity of a weak
   frontal boundary across northwest KS. Strong heating and steep
   midlevel lapse rates have allowed for moderate destabilization, with
   MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses. Continued
   heating and weakening of MLCINH should allow for widely scattered
   thunderstorm development later this afternoon across this region.
   Effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor some organization, including
   the potential for a supercell or two, though backing of upper-level
   flow may result in somewhat messy storm structures and tendency for
   more of a cluster mode. 

   Large hail and localized downburst winds will the the primary
   initial hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as
   convection spreads southeastward, at which point the main threat
   would transition to primarily damaging wind. Watch issuance is
   possible by 21Z for portions of this region.

   ..Dean/Goss.. 07/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37070281 38750288 39520280 39840259 39920164 39960080
               39940049 39900019 39200009 38180006 37690019 37250044
               37060110 37030212 37050269 37070281