Mesoscale Discussion 1357
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

   Areas affected...central/southern Oklahoma and adjacent areas of
   western Texas and the Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302031Z - 302230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to expand in coverage
   across the MD area over the next few hours.  A WW issuance may
   eventually be needed for an emerging hail/wind threat with this
   activity.

   DISCUSSION...A few elevated thunderstorms have deepened over the
   past half hour or so over west-central Oklahoma, while a deepening
   cumulus field was evident in satellite imagery along and ahead of a
   front that bisects Oklahoma from northeast to southwest.  Strong
   surface-based instability (90s F surface temperatures and 60s-70s F
   dewpoints contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) was located along
   and ahead of the front, while steep mid-level lapse rates and weak
   impulse(s) around the base of a mid-level trough centered over
   Kansas was likely forcing convection in west-central Oklahoma.  As
   these storms approach the open warm sector and continued surface
   heating weakens mid-level inhibition noted in forecast soundings,
   the expectation is that convective coverage will expand, with ~40
   knots of deep shear supporting loosely organized clusters of storms
   through the evening.  Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the
   primary threats with this activity, with the main
   uncertainty/limiting factor for a potential Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch issuance being convective coverage before sunset.  Convective
   trends are being monitored across the discussion area.

   ..Cook/Goss.. 07/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35619657 35619777 35419916 34950043 34310128 33870156
               33490130 33320032 33519833 34029646 34379568 34909539
               35389558 35619657