Mesoscale Discussion 1358
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

   Areas affected...the ArkLaTex northeastward through central Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302041Z - 302245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection entering western Arkansas may gradually expand
   in coverage and require issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   later this afternoon.  Convective trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level convection initially over eastern Oklahoma
   has deepened and become more surface-based this afternoon while
   making eastward progress toward the discussion area.  The downstream
   airmass is weakly capped and characterized by strong instability
   (3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) and modest deep shear (around 30-40 knots). 
   The deep shear may support loose organization into a cluster or line
   pending evolution of the ongoing cluster in western Arkansas and
   maturity of any resultant cold pool.  CAMs hint at evolution of a
   cluster that will forward-propagate through the discussion area -
   perhaps through central and southern Arkansas over the next couple
   hours or so.  Given the strongly buoyant downstream environment,
   strong wind gusts and isolated hail are the main threats with any
   activity that can evolve.  Pending convective trends (particularly
   extent of storm coverage), a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
   later this afternoon.

   ..Cook/Goss.. 07/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35569183 35439289 34839418 34279489 33559524 32899492
               32669415 32659275 33109165 33739121 34269098 34899105
               35179125 35569183