Mesoscale Discussion 1363
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern Tennessee and Southern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311721Z - 311815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging winds possible, watch unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional satellite depicts a broad area of boundary
   layer cumulus developing in response to strong diurnal heating and
   ascent associated with a subtle/remnant MCV. Surface temperatures
   have warmed into the mid-80s F amid rich low-level moisture, with
   dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F, resulting in
   progressive destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg). Consequently,
   thunderstorms are beginning to develop over portions of central
   Tennessee, and storms are expected to become more numerous through
   the afternoon. Strong low-level lapse rates (near 8 C/km) and DCAPE
   approaching 800 J/kg should yield a few damaging wind gusts with the
   strongest storms.

   Despite strong instability, deep layer shear remains weak over the
   region and this should limit the overall severe threat. Perhaps some
   local enhancement of the flow and uptick in storm severity is
   possible in association with the MCV. Thus convective trends will
   continue to be monitored, but at the present time a watch is not
   expected.

   ..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

   LAT...LON   35028689 35718754 36448744 37148675 37368495 36838355
               35638344 35108431 34928548 35028689