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Mesoscale Discussion 1364
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1364
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

   Areas affected...northern Louisiana into central and northern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 311735Z - 311900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to
   increase this afternoon. Isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorm wind
   gusts and a brief tornado will be possible. A severe thunderstorm
   watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed surface temperatures to warm
   into the upper-80s to low-90s F this afternoon across portions of
   northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi. Here, the combination
   of strong surface heating and widespread moisture (surface dewpoints
   in excess of 70F) will provide an airmass conducive for the
   development of thunderstorms this afternoon. In fact, recent visible
   satellite imagery shows agitating cumulus developing/persisting
   across the area. In addition to the potential for thunderstorm
   development within the hot, humid airmass, as suggested by satellite
   imagery, a surface front across northwest Louisiana into southeast
   Arkansas will continue to push south and east through the afternoon.
   This surface boundary will provide an additional focus or
   thunderstorm development.

   This region is on the southern periphery of the better deep-layer
   flow, yielding deep-layer shear of 30-40 knots despite westerly
   low-level winds. This combined with most-unstable CAPE values
   approaching 4000 J/kg across central Mississippi, will yield the
   potential for organized multi-cell thunderstorms, potentially
   evolving into short lines/bows, capable of producing isolated severe
   wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the very
   unstable airmass and the presence of a surface boundary, nor with
   any transient supercell structure that may develop with in the
   vicinity of sustained backed low-level flow.

   Given the environment across the region and the expected number of
   thunderstorms, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
   across portions of the area during the afternoon.

   ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33229134 34458931 32238877 31659296 32289402 33229134 

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