Mesoscale Discussion 1365
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

   Areas affected...central and northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311829Z - 312000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in a highly unstable
   environment. Atmospheric conditions will support the occasional
   strong downburst capable of producing isolated wind/tree damage.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop on the far southern
   periphery of a mesoscale convective vortex across Tennessee. These
   thunderstorms are developing within a strongly unstable environment
   with just enough deep-layer flow to support updraft longevity. 

   Given high tropospheric moisture content, strong instability, and
   deep-layer shear around 20 knots, a few downbursts cannot be ruled
   out with the strongest thunderstorm cores. The lack of stronger
   deep-layer shear should preclude a more widespread, organized severe
   risk and therefore a watch is not currently anticipated. Trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   33678804 34978689 34838505 33408589 33678804