Mesoscale Discussion 1366
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311953Z - 312200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increase in coverage of severe storms expected in the next
   1-2 hours, watch possible.

   DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows a few focused areas of
   boundary layer cumulus development, one over southern portions of
   the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and another along the Sacramento
   Range in south-central New Mexico. These areas of development are
   occurring within an environment characterized by modest instability
   (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) and moderate effective bulk shear (35-45
   kt). In addition, steep low- and mid-level lapse rates (approaching
   9 C/km) are present across the region.

   With continued diabatic heating, the ongoing convective development
   is expected to result in more numerous coverage of storms this
   afternoon. The aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter combination will
   help to organize storms into perhaps a few supercells capable of
   large hail and damaging wind gusts. Coverage of storms is generally
   expected to increase from north to south over the area. Should these
   convective trends unfold, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed
   for parts of the region by late afternoon.

   ..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/31/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32500546 33720584 35680606 36350577 36630525 36500464
               36180404 35400372 32920424 32340465 32500546