Mesoscale Discussion 1377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...much of New York State...central/eastern
   Pennsylvania...and northern New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021800Z - 022000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convective coverage/intensity is
   expected through the afternoon.  A WW issuance will be considered
   for parts of the region.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and satellite imagery indicate a few areas
   of deepening convection from near SYR to near GFL in northern
   portions of New York State.  Another area of convection was located
   near BDL in Connecticut.  This deepening convection is likely
   attributed to a few factors, including surface
   heating/destabilization, subtle low-level confluence/convergence
   over the open warm sector, and the approach of a mid-level shortwave
   trough centered over western New York.  Instability increases with
   southward extent, with MUCAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg across
   eastern Pennsylvania and between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
   warm front located from near MSS to near BAF.  The expectation is
   that convection will continue to gradually deepen in an environment
   with sufficient shear for updraft rotation, with damaging wind gusts
   and perhaps a few tornadoes possible given veering flow with height
   and appreciable low-level shear - especially near the warm front. 
   These expectations are further supported by recent CAMs, with a
   couple of corridors most likely to materialize into strong to severe
   convection - one across northern New York State and another across
   Massachusetts/Connecticut and vicinity.

   Over the course of the afternoon, one or two WWs will be considered
   for at least portions of this region pending convective trends.

   ..Cook/Bunting.. 08/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   CTP...

   LAT...LON   44077618 44397577 44757520 44917459 44887401 44407371
               43787320 43177259 42487208 41677217 41157295 41207359
               41137451 40697543 40437600 40587646 41267660 42057633
               42797630 43497635 44077618